In a recent Investment Executive Soundbites interview, Lisa Conroy, CFA, Product Specialist on our Fundamental Equity team, discusses the outlook for Canadian equities and why a number of structural trends are creating compelling opportunities for Canadian companies. From onshoring and electrification to AI infrastructure investment, Lisa explains why Canada is well positioned to benefit from forces reshaping the global economy and where our team is finding opportunities across the Canadian market.

The post Lisa Conroy discusses opportunities in Canadian equities with Investment Executive appeared first on Groupe financier Connor, Clark & Lunn ltée.

Dans une récente entrevue accordée à Soundbites d’Investment Executive, Lisa Conroy, CFA, spécialiste des produits au sein de notre équipe des actions fondamentales, présente ses perspectives pour les actions canadiennes et explique pourquoi plusieurs tendances structurelles créent des occasions intéressantes pour les entreprises canadiennes. Du rapatriement des activités de production à l’électrification, en passant par les investissements dans les infrastructures liées à l’intelligence artificielle, Lisa explique pourquoi le Canada est bien placé pour tirer parti des forces qui transforment l’économie mondiale et où notre équipe trouve des occasions sur le marché canadien.

The post Lisa Conroy discute des occasions sur le marché des actions canadiennes avec Investment Executive appeared first on Groupe financier Connor, Clark & Lunn ltée.

Japan: Oasis of (political) stability

In February 2026, Japan’s first female prime minister Sanae Takaichi announced a snap election in the National Diet’s Lower House. She proceeded to win a commanding majority of roughly two-thirds of seats for her ruling conservative party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). With conservative Osaka-based coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party (JIP), the ruling coalition control about three-quarters of seats, providing a strong mandate to advance policy plans. After cycling through four prime ministers (including Sanae Takaichi) since the pandemic, Japan finally has political stability. In contrast, G7 peers like France, Germany, the UK and Italy are beset by fragile ruling coalitions or political infighting.
 

Figure 1: National Diet Lower House seats split by party before and after the snap February 2026 election

Source: Nikkei Asia

Fiscal investment, not consumption

The Takaichi administration is taking advantage of this electoral supermajority to pursue a more growth-oriented fiscal strategy with a ¥370+ trillion fiscal investment package into 17 strategic sectors through FY 2040E. Previous fiscal stimulus programs focused on consumer support and public works projects to prevent economic stagnation or to alleviate downturns and associated unemployment. However, Prime Minister Takaichi’s plan is aimed at boosting Japan’s long-term productive capacity.
 

Figure 2: Estimates of Japan’s real GDP potential growth rate from Bank of Japan and the Cabinet Office

Source: Bank of Japan, Cabinet Office via Bloomberg Economics

Figure 3: Annualized potential real GDP growth estimates across major economies

Sources: International Monetary Fund, Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada, Bank of Korea, USA Congressional Budget Office

Automation to offset a shrinking labour force

Against other advanced economies, Japan’s economic growth potential is low. This is partly due to its aging and falling population, but also because of low productivity relative to peers. The government and private firms both see automation, rather than mass immigration, as the solution to low productivity and structural labour shortages caused by an aging and declining population as well as insufficient technological adoption. By directing capital toward sectors such as automation, semiconductors, data centres, batteries and advanced healthcare, Prime Minister Takaichi’s fiscal plans seek to lift productivity, which will drive Japan’s long-term economic growth. Specifically, Prime Minister Takaichi’s fiscal roadmap includes allocations toward themes such as physical AI, advanced health care and soft power.
 

Figure 4: The Japanese economy’s capital intensity stagnated for two decades despite labour shortages

Sources: Bank of Japan, Cabinet Office, Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications via Bloomberg

Figure 5: Prime Minister Takaichi’s fiscal stimulus plan through public-private partnerships into FY 2040E

Source: Cabinet Secretariat via Bank of America Global Research

Physical AI

Prime Minister Takaichi’s fiscal roadmap allocates ¥10.5 trillion to “physical AI.” This refers to the manifestation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the physical realm through robotics and automation. In Japan, labour shortages are concentrated in sectors where robots struggle to displace workers. For example, manufacturers have advanced machining tools, but too few operators to handle them. Logistics firms have sufficient trucks but too few drivers. Humanoid robotics and autonomous vehicles should eventually enable Japan to expand productivity via a capital-for-labour substitution.

In total, physical AI, semiconductors, data centre and battery investments comprise ¥101.6 trillion of the government’s 15-year ¥370 trillion fiscal investment plan. Our portfolios’ exposure to these core themes is concentrated in semiconductor production equipment makers and semiconductor material producers.

Tokyo Seimitsu Co. Ltd. (7729 JP)

Founded in 1949, Tokyo Seimitsu manufactures and sells metrology instruments and semiconductor production equipment for automotive, machine tools, semiconductors and aerospace, as well as charge and discharge testing systems for BEVs.

Micronics Japan Co. Ltd. (6871 JP)
Micronics Japan designs, produces and sells probe cards, which are used to inspect integrated circuits (ICs). The firm also manufactures wafer probers, probe card testers, IC handlers and inspection and testing devices used for liquid crystal display (LCD) manufacturing.

Horiba Ltd. (6856 JP)
Horiba manufactures and markets metrology instruments and analyzers. Key product lines include scientific/medical/emissions analyzers, environmental monitors for air/water and semiconductor testing equipment. Horiba has a local presence across China, Japan, Korea, India, Singapore, Thailand, Austria, France, Germany, the UK, the United States, Canada and Brazil.

Sumitomo Bakelite Co. Ltd. (4203 JP)
Sumitomo Bakelite Limited is an integrated processor of synthetic resins and a member of the Sumitomo Chemical Group, which retains a 10.5% equity stake. The firm’s materials are used during the production of electronic components such as chips and PCBs as well as in automotive where BEVs use more encapsulants. With an industry-leading 50% market share after acquiring Kyocera’s encapsulant business, the company is well-positioned to expand further, supported by the growth in automotive applications.

Kurita Water Industries Ltd. (6370 JP)
Kurita Water manufactures, sells and maintains water treatment equipment and facilities. It produces chemical consumables for precision cleaning and water purification. The company also manufactures equipment for wastewater treatment, purification, sanitation, soil remediation, sanitation and HVAC applications. Kurita Water remains Japan’s largest water treatment engineering firm.

Advanced health care

As Japan is a pioneer leading the world in aging, its government recognizes their firms’ “first-mover advantage” in tackling ailments. “Advanced health care” refers to pharmaceutical solutions and medical devices that improve human health. Prime Minister Takaichi’s fiscal plan allocates ¥64.1 trillion to pharmaceutical therapeutics such as antibody drug conjugates, bispecific antibodies, infectious disease vaccine R&D and AI-enabled medical device diagnostics. We have portfolio holdings that are positioned to benefit from the investments in this theme.

Asahi Intecc Co. Ltd. (7747 JP)
Asahi Intecc is a Japanese medical device manufacturer. Asahi operates through two segments. The medical segment develops, manufactures and sells private-label and OEM SKUs. The industrial devices segment develops, manufactures and sells components related to both medical and industrial products. It is the leading producer of interventional guidewires and microcatheters, perfected over 40 years with a longstanding presence in niche steel wire tech.

Sysmex Corporation (6869 JP)
Founded in 1968, Sysmex is the leader in hematology, hemostasis, invitro diagnostics, immunochemistry, urinalysis and the challenger in surgical robotics. The company designs, produces and supplies reagents, instruments, services and other products used in diagnostic tests.

Soft power

The government also understands the importance of “soft power.” This is the phenomenon of exerting geopolitical influence through cultural content such as manga, anime, music, and games. The fiscal plan outlines content investments worth ¥33.7 trillion to enable intellectual property (IP) monetization and new IP development, as well as the localization of Japanese cultural IP overseas, IP exports and tourism.

Sega Sammy Holdings Inc. (6460 JP)
Sega Sammy is the second largest gaming software and hardware producer by revenue, after Nintendo. Their entertainment content segment develops and sells games on third-party platforms (mobile, PC, consoles), licenses IP to film producers and goods manufacturers and sells equipment to arcade operators. Sega’s pachislot and pachinko machine segment manufactures and sells its products to game parlours. The resort segment operates hotels and golf courses at integrated resorts. The firm owns IP of major gaming franchises like Sonic the Hedgehog, Virtua Fighter, Yakuza and Angry Birds since 2023.

Kotobuki Spirits Co. Ltd. (2222 JP)
Kotobuki Spirits is a Japanese firm engaged in the manufacture and sale of confectioneries. It operates six segments: Sucrey, KCC, Seika Tajima, Sales Subsidiary, Kujuku Island and others. The firm is entering into retail after successfully operating via wholesalers.

The post Investing in Japan’s next chapter appeared first on Groupe financier Connor, Clark & Lunn ltée.

Japan: Oasis of (political) stability

In February 2026, Japan’s first female prime minister Sanae Takaichi announced a snap election in the National Diet’s Lower House. She proceeded to win a commanding majority of roughly two-thirds of seats for her ruling conservative party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). With conservative Osaka-based coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party (JIP), the ruling coalition control about three-quarters of seats, providing a strong mandate to advance policy plans. After cycling through four prime ministers (including Sanae Takaichi) since the pandemic, Japan finally has political stability. In contrast, G7 peers like France, Germany, the UK and Italy are beset by fragile ruling coalitions or political infighting.
 

Figure 1: National Diet Lower House seats split by party before and after the snap February 2026 election

Source: Nikkei Asia

Fiscal investment, not consumption

The Takaichi administration is taking advantage of this electoral supermajority to pursue a more growth-oriented fiscal strategy with a ¥370+ trillion fiscal investment package into 17 strategic sectors through FY 2040E. Previous fiscal stimulus programs focused on consumer support and public works projects to prevent economic stagnation or to alleviate downturns and associated unemployment. However, Prime Minister Takaichi’s plan is aimed at boosting Japan’s long-term productive capacity.
 

Figure 2: Estimates of Japan’s real GDP potential growth rate from Bank of Japan and the Cabinet Office

Source: Bank of Japan, Cabinet Office via Bloomberg Economics

Figure 3: Annualized potential real GDP growth estimates across major economies

Sources: International Monetary Fund, Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada, Bank of Korea, USA Congressional Budget Office

Automation to offset a shrinking labour force

Against other advanced economies, Japan’s economic growth potential is low. This is partly due to its aging and falling population, but also because of low productivity relative to peers. The government and private firms both see automation, rather than mass immigration, as the solution to low productivity and structural labour shortages caused by an aging and declining population as well as insufficient technological adoption. By directing capital toward sectors such as automation, semiconductors, data centres, batteries and advanced healthcare, Prime Minister Takaichi’s fiscal plans seek to lift productivity, which will drive Japan’s long-term economic growth. Specifically, Prime Minister Takaichi’s fiscal roadmap includes allocations toward themes such as physical AI, advanced health care and soft power.
 

Figure 4: The Japanese economy’s capital intensity stagnated for two decades despite labour shortages

Sources: Bank of Japan, Cabinet Office, Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications via Bloomberg

Figure 5: Prime Minister Takaichi’s fiscal stimulus plan through public-private partnerships into FY 2040E

Source: Cabinet Secretariat via Bank of America Global Research

Physical AI

Prime Minister Takaichi’s fiscal roadmap allocates ¥10.5 trillion to “physical AI.” This refers to the manifestation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the physical realm through robotics and automation. In Japan, labour shortages are concentrated in sectors where robots struggle to displace workers. For example, manufacturers have advanced machining tools, but too few operators to handle them. Logistics firms have sufficient trucks but too few drivers. Humanoid robotics and autonomous vehicles should eventually enable Japan to expand productivity via a capital-for-labour substitution.

In total, physical AI, semiconductors, data centre and battery investments comprise ¥101.6 trillion of the government’s 15-year ¥370 trillion fiscal investment plan. Our portfolios’ exposure to these core themes is concentrated in semiconductor production equipment makers and semiconductor material producers.

Tokyo Seimitsu Co. Ltd. (7729 JP)

Founded in 1949, Tokyo Seimitsu manufactures and sells metrology instruments and semiconductor production equipment for automotive, machine tools, semiconductors and aerospace, as well as charge and discharge testing systems for BEVs.

Micronics Japan Co. Ltd. (6871 JP)
Micronics Japan designs, produces and sells probe cards, which are used to inspect integrated circuits (ICs). The firm also manufactures wafer probers, probe card testers, IC handlers and inspection and testing devices used for liquid crystal display (LCD) manufacturing.

Horiba Ltd. (6856 JP)
Horiba manufactures and markets metrology instruments and analyzers. Key product lines include scientific/medical/emissions analyzers, environmental monitors for air/water and semiconductor testing equipment. Horiba has a local presence across China, Japan, Korea, India, Singapore, Thailand, Austria, France, Germany, the UK, the United States, Canada and Brazil.

Sumitomo Bakelite Co. Ltd. (4203 JP)
Sumitomo Bakelite Limited is an integrated processor of synthetic resins and a member of the Sumitomo Chemical Group, which retains a 10.5% equity stake. The firm’s materials are used during the production of electronic components such as chips and PCBs as well as in automotive where BEVs use more encapsulants. With an industry-leading 50% market share after acquiring Kyocera’s encapsulant business, the company is well-positioned to expand further, supported by the growth in automotive applications.

Kurita Water Industries Ltd. (6370 JP)
Kurita Water manufactures, sells and maintains water treatment equipment and facilities. It produces chemical consumables for precision cleaning and water purification. The company also manufactures equipment for wastewater treatment, purification, sanitation, soil remediation, sanitation and HVAC applications. Kurita Water remains Japan’s largest water treatment engineering firm.

Advanced health care

As Japan is a pioneer leading the world in aging, its government recognizes their firms’ “first-mover advantage” in tackling ailments. “Advanced health care” refers to pharmaceutical solutions and medical devices that improve human health. Prime Minister Takaichi’s fiscal plan allocates ¥64.1 trillion to pharmaceutical therapeutics such as antibody drug conjugates, bispecific antibodies, infectious disease vaccine R&D and AI-enabled medical device diagnostics. We have portfolio holdings that are positioned to benefit from the investments in this theme.

Asahi Intecc Co. Ltd. (7747 JP)
Asahi Intecc is a Japanese medical device manufacturer. Asahi operates through two segments. The medical segment develops, manufactures and sells private-label and OEM SKUs. The industrial devices segment develops, manufactures and sells components related to both medical and industrial products. It is the leading producer of interventional guidewires and microcatheters, perfected over 40 years with a longstanding presence in niche steel wire tech.

Sysmex Corporation (6869 JP)
Founded in 1968, Sysmex is the leader in hematology, hemostasis, invitro diagnostics, immunochemistry, urinalysis and the challenger in surgical robotics. The company designs, produces and supplies reagents, instruments, services and other products used in diagnostic tests.

Soft power

The government also understands the importance of “soft power.” This is the phenomenon of exerting geopolitical influence through cultural content such as manga, anime, music, and games. The fiscal plan outlines content investments worth ¥33.7 trillion to enable intellectual property (IP) monetization and new IP development, as well as the localization of Japanese cultural IP overseas, IP exports and tourism.

Sega Sammy Holdings Inc. (6460 JP)
Sega Sammy is the second largest gaming software and hardware producer by revenue, after Nintendo. Their entertainment content segment develops and sells games on third-party platforms (mobile, PC, consoles), licenses IP to film producers and goods manufacturers and sells equipment to arcade operators. Sega’s pachislot and pachinko machine segment manufactures and sells its products to game parlours. The resort segment operates hotels and golf courses at integrated resorts. The firm owns IP of major gaming franchises like Sonic the Hedgehog, Virtua Fighter, Yakuza and Angry Birds since 2023.

Kotobuki Spirits Co. Ltd. (2222 JP)
Kotobuki Spirits is a Japanese firm engaged in the manufacture and sale of confectioneries. It operates six segments: Sucrey, KCC, Seika Tajima, Sales Subsidiary, Kujuku Island and others. The firm is entering into retail after successfully operating via wholesalers.

The post Investing in Japan’s next chapter appeared first on Groupe financier Connor, Clark & Lunn ltée.

The manufacturing PMI reached a 51-month high in August, according to flash data released last week. Recent strength was signalled by an upswing in six-month real narrow money momentum into July 2025 followed by a consolidation into early 2026 – see chart 1.

Chart 1

Real money momentum, however, has fallen sharply since February, turning negative in April and weakening further in July. Allowing for the usual six to 12 months lead, this suggests that the PMI is entering a time window to begin another sustained decline.

The fall in real narrow money momentum reflects a combination of a slowdown in nominal growth, probably explicable by misguided ECB policy tightening, and an energy-driven pick-up in six-month consumer price inflation – chart 2.

Chart 2

A country breakdown is available for the deposit component of narrow money but not currency in circulation. Six-month real deposit momentum is negative across the big four, with the largest contractions in France and Italy.

Chart 3

French monetary weakness suggests rising economic / fiscal risks, appreciation of which may explain a fall in demand for French government debt. Bond purchases by Eurozone banks in the 12 months to July were smaller than in the other big four markets, a reversal of the position a year ago – chart 4.

Chart 4

Further details show that purchases of French bonds by both French banks and other Eurozone institutions have slowed. French banks bought only €7.0 bn in the year to July, down from €48.9 bn in the prior 12 months.

The fall in demand for French bonds by French banks follows a reduction in the ownership percentage of French insurers and other domestic investors in recent years. Accordingly, the share of debt owned by non-residents rose to 57.5% in Q1 2026, a nine-year high – chart 5.

Chart 5

The post Eurozone money update: French weakness appeared first on Groupe financier Connor, Clark & Lunn ltée.

The manufacturing PMI reached a 51-month high in August, according to flash data released last week. Recent strength was signalled by an upswing in six-month real narrow money momentum into July 2025 followed by a consolidation into early 2026 – see chart 1.

Chart 1

Real money momentum, however, has fallen sharply since February, turning negative in April and weakening further in July. Allowing for the usual six to 12 months lead, this suggests that the PMI is entering a time window to begin another sustained decline.

The fall in real narrow money momentum reflects a combination of a slowdown in nominal growth, probably explicable by misguided ECB policy tightening, and an energy-driven pick-up in six-month consumer price inflation – chart 2.

Chart 2

A country breakdown is available for the deposit component of narrow money but not currency in circulation. Six-month real deposit momentum is negative across the big four, with the largest contractions in France and Italy.

Chart 3

French monetary weakness suggests rising economic / fiscal risks, appreciation of which may explain a fall in demand for French government debt. Bond purchases by Eurozone banks in the 12 months to July were smaller than in the other big four markets, a reversal of the position a year ago – chart 4.

Chart 4

Further details show that purchases of French bonds by both French banks and other Eurozone institutions have slowed. French banks bought only €7.0 bn in the year to July, down from €48.9 bn in the prior 12 months.

The fall in demand for French bonds by French banks follows a reduction in the ownership percentage of French insurers and other domestic investors in recent years. Accordingly, the share of debt owned by non-residents rose to 57.5% in Q1 2026, a nine-year high – chart 5.

Chart 5

The post Eurozone money update: French weakness appeared first on Groupe financier Connor, Clark & Lunn ltée.

Chart 1

The pick-up is consistent with marked monetary acceleration since the start of the year, which continued last month. Six-month growth of the broad “M2+” measure calculated here reached 8.1% annualised in July, with expansion of narrow money M1A hitting 10.2% – chart 2*.

Chart 2

The rise in broad money growth appears to have been driven a combination of firmer commercial bank credit expansion, the Fed’s reserve management securities purchases and external monetary inflows, reflecting large-scale foreign buying of US equities.

Monetary strength suggests that near-term economic news will remain robust, while medium-term inflation risks (i.e. for 2028 and beyond) are rising.

Could money momentum be peaking? Three-month growth of commercial bank loans and leases has fallen since April, although the impact on overall credit expansion has been softened by a pick-up in securities purchases – chart 3. The slowdown has been focused on C&I loans and the “all other” category, which includes lending to non-bank financial institutions.

Chart 3

Additionally, the boost from Fed bill buying is moderating, with purchases suspended for the current operating period (ending 14 September) and uncertain prospects for a subsequent resumption at the previous $10 billion per month pace.

*M1A = currency in circulation + demand deposits. M2+ = M2 + large time deposits at commercial banks + institutional money funds.

The post US money update: more strength appeared first on Groupe financier Connor, Clark & Lunn ltée.

Chart 1

The pick-up is consistent with marked monetary acceleration since the start of the year, which continued last month. Six-month growth of the broad “M2+” measure calculated here reached 8.1% annualised in July, with expansion of narrow money M1A hitting 10.2% – chart 2*.

Chart 2

The rise in broad money growth appears to have been driven a combination of firmer commercial bank credit expansion, the Fed’s reserve management securities purchases and external monetary inflows, reflecting large-scale foreign buying of US equities.

Monetary strength suggests that near-term economic news will remain robust, while medium-term inflation risks (i.e. for 2028 and beyond) are rising.

Could money momentum be peaking? Three-month growth of commercial bank loans and leases has fallen since April, although the impact on overall credit expansion has been softened by a pick-up in securities purchases – chart 3. The slowdown has been focused on C&I loans and the “all other” category, which includes lending to non-bank financial institutions.

Chart 3

Additionally, the boost from Fed bill buying is moderating, with purchases suspended for the current operating period (ending 14 September) and uncertain prospects for a subsequent resumption at the previous $10 billion per month pace.

*M1A = currency in circulation + demand deposits. M2+ = M2 + large time deposits at commercial banks + institutional money funds.

The post US money update: more strength appeared first on Groupe financier Connor, Clark & Lunn ltée.

Chart 1

Renewed weakness is unsurprising because the BoJ is continuing to ramp up QT, with monthly JGB purchases falling further behind the run-rate of redemptions – chart 2.

Chart 2

Recent f/x intervention will be a further drag on August numbers. (Yen purchases occurred on 30-31 July, so settled on 3-4 August.)

A post-covid fall in annual money growth accelerated from Q1 2024. This has been reflected in a slowdown in annual nominal GDP expansion since Q2 2025, to 3.1% last quarter – chart 3.

Chart 3

Nominal GDP growth may soon be at or below a pace consistent with the 2% inflation target, based on the BoJ’s estimate of potential expansion of 0.7% pa.

Annual money growth bottomed in Q2 2025, with a tepid recovery into Q2 2026 probably now reversing.

Money growth rates are far below 2010-19 means, when nominal GDP expansion averaged 1.4% pa, a pace associated with average annual CPI inflation of just 0.5%.

Optimists cite strong bank credit growth. Commercial banks’ domestic loans and discounts grew by an annual 6.7% in June, with corporate lending up by 7.8% – chart 4.

Chart 4

The “monetarist” view is that stronger lending has limited economic effects unless accompanied by faster monetary expansion. Otherwise, any rise in demand associated with the lending is balanced by weaker spending elsewhere – a monetary “crowding out” effect.

Lending buoyancy, in any case, is partly a consequence of the monetary squeeze imposed by QT, rather than being an independent positive signal. Rising yields due to the JGB dump have encouraged corporations to switch from bond market funding to cheaper bank borrowing.

Corporations may also have been borrowing domestically to finance rising FDI, contributing to downward pressure on the yen.

What would happen if QT were suspended? With the distortion of BoJ supply removed, domestic and foreign demand for JGBs would likely revive, resulting in lower yields and a rally in the yen. Money growth would recover but probably only to a moderate level, reflecting an associated slowdown in bank lending. Excessive monetary acceleration could be countered by raising rates. A stronger yen would damp near-term inflation while a recovery in money growth would reduce the risk of a medium-term undershoot.

Worth pushing for, Secretary Bessent?

The post Japanese money update: further weakness appeared first on Groupe financier Connor, Clark & Lunn ltée.

Chart 1

Renewed weakness is unsurprising because the BoJ is continuing to ramp up QT, with monthly JGB purchases falling further behind the run-rate of redemptions – chart 2.

Chart 2

Recent f/x intervention will be a further drag on August numbers. (Yen purchases occurred on 30-31 July, so settled on 3-4 August.)

A post-covid fall in annual money growth accelerated from Q1 2024. This has been reflected in a slowdown in annual nominal GDP expansion since Q2 2025, to 3.1% last quarter – chart 3.

Chart 3

Nominal GDP growth may soon be at or below a pace consistent with the 2% inflation target, based on the BoJ’s estimate of potential expansion of 0.7% pa.

Annual money growth bottomed in Q2 2025, with a tepid recovery into Q2 2026 probably now reversing.

Money growth rates are far below 2010-19 means, when nominal GDP expansion averaged 1.4% pa, a pace associated with average annual CPI inflation of just 0.5%.

Optimists cite strong bank credit growth. Commercial banks’ domestic loans and discounts grew by an annual 6.7% in June, with corporate lending up by 7.8% – chart 4.

Chart 4

The “monetarist” view is that stronger lending has limited economic effects unless accompanied by faster monetary expansion. Otherwise, any rise in demand associated with the lending is balanced by weaker spending elsewhere – a monetary “crowding out” effect.

Lending buoyancy, in any case, is partly a consequence of the monetary squeeze imposed by QT, rather than being an independent positive signal. Rising yields due to the JGB dump have encouraged corporations to switch from bond market funding to cheaper bank borrowing.

Corporations may also have been borrowing domestically to finance rising FDI, contributing to downward pressure on the yen.

What would happen if QT were suspended? With the distortion of BoJ supply removed, domestic and foreign demand for JGBs would likely revive, resulting in lower yields and a rally in the yen. Money growth would recover but probably only to a moderate level, reflecting an associated slowdown in bank lending. Excessive monetary acceleration could be countered by raising rates. A stronger yen would damp near-term inflation while a recovery in money growth would reduce the risk of a medium-term undershoot.

Worth pushing for, Secretary Bessent?

The post Japanese money update: further weakness appeared first on Groupe financier Connor, Clark & Lunn ltée.